Weather

Weather generally doesn't stop us from going on outings, but it can change where we go and what we do.  We use these tools to plan for outings. 

Resources

• Weather Forecast, Precipitation and Wind

  • windy.com

  • Right click on area to select forecast 

  • Defaults to ECMWF model

    • Good for forecasting up to 10 days

  • Can compare different forecast models

    • Use HRRR for Day of Forecasts

    • Use NAM between Day of and 61 hours

    • Consider METEOBLUE which uses other models combined with AI to predict weather

      • METEOBLUE excels in alpine areas

• Air Quality and Fires

  • Air Quality Only: gispub.epa.gov/airnow

  • Air and Fire: fire.airnow.gov 

• Wildfires

  • inciweb.wildfire.gov

• WBGT (Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature)

  • digital.weather.gov

  • Used to evaluate Heat Risk

    • Heat Stress based on 

      • Wind speed

      • Humidity 

      • Solar radiation

    • Factors in several data points

      • Dry-bulb temperature

        • Standard air temperature

      • Natural wet-bulb temperature

        • Measures the effect of evaporative cooling from a wet cloth

      • Black globe temperature

        • A thermometer in a black globe measures the heat absorbed from solar radiation

  • Use tool to forecast WBGT hour by hour as needed

• Avalanche Forecast

  • nwac.us

  • Weather Data Map: nwac.us/weatherdata/map 

  • Avalanche Slope Tool: caltopo.com/m/4M3E 

  • Mountain Pass and Winter Travel: wsdot.com/travel/real-time/mountainpasses/ 

Other Tools for Planning:

• Cellphone Coverage 

  • Used to get idea if cell phones will be functional in area you are visiting

  • FCC National Broadband Map 

• Land Manager Maps

  • Helps you determine who Land Manger(s) is/are

  • Can contact local rangers for information

  • BLM National Data 

  • WA Major Public Lands (non-DNR) 

• Tides

  • tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/tide_predictions.html?gid=1415 

• Daily Streamflow Conditions

  • waterdata.usgs.gov/wa/nwis/rt 

• Magnetic Declination

  • ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/calculators/magcalc.shtml 

• Moon Rise and Set

  • timeanddate.com/moon/usa/seattle 

• Aurora

  • swpc.noaa.gov/communities/aurora-dashboard-experimental 

Weather Forecast Models

• Windy allows you to compare different forecast models

  • Forecast Models

    • ECMWF 9km

      • Default Model for Windy

      • European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

      • Commercial (not free) - so not used by most weather apps

      • Very Accurate model

      • Superior accuracy in long-range forecasts (greater than a day and up to 10 days)

    • NAM 5km

      • Use for short term forecast of next day to max 61 hours

      • Regional mesoscale model run by National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NOAA)

      • emc.ncep.noaa.gov

      • Regional: Better resolution than global models for North America

      • Predicts snow depth

      • Updated four times a day

      • Short Forecasts: 2.5 days (61 hours)

        • Use for mid range forecasts between HRRR and ECMWF

    • HRRR CONUS 3km

      • Use for Day Of Forecasts

      • High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model run by National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NOAA)

      • rapidrefresh.noaa.gov

      • Regional: Better resolution than global models for North America

      • Radar-based 

      • Updated hourly

        • Better than NAM for very short range forecasts

      • Super short forecast (1.5 days)

        • Max 36 hour 

    • GFS 22km

      • Basic free model from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

        • Most weather apps use this model

      • NOT great resolution

      • Frequent updates, but not as accurate as other models

      • Can fail in mountains areas as well as forecasting clouds and precipitation

    • ICON 13km

      • German DWD

      • One of most modern models - Very good results (especially in Europe)

      • Excels in short-range predictions and high-resolution forecasts over complex terrain in Europe

        • Offers high spatial resolutions (1-2.1 km for high-resolution regional models in Europe)

        • Better for 12-hour predictions in Europe

          • Updates every 4 hours for ICON-D2 = less lag than ECMWF

        • Better for Fog and Storm predictions in complex areas

      • NOTE: Windy uses ICON13 for the US

        • ICON-D2 for Central Europe, ICON7 for Europe as a whole, and ICON13 for the world

        • Resolution: ICON-D2 — 2.2 km, ICON7 — 7 km, ICON13 — 13 km

        • Forecast depth: ICON-D2 — 2 days, ICON7 — 5 days, ICON13 — 7.5 days

        • Expected update: ICON-D2 — 8 times a day, ICON7 and ICON13 — 2 times a day

    • METEOBLUE

      • Swiss company

      • Majority share of company bought by owner of windy.com June 2024

      • Uses AI to ensemble multiple forecast models

      • Excels in Alpine areas 

    • HRDPS 2.5km

      • High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System

      • Canadian - run by MSC