Warning: Mountain Climbing requires special training and gear and is inherently dangerous.
We have Skilled and Experienced Youth and Adult Climbers in our Troop. If a climb is considered, a good amount of training must be completed prior to a summit attempt and only a select few Scouts and Adults will be able to attend.
If you are considering a Climb, consider taking a climbing course and using a Guide Service for your big adventure.
Matrix per See Emmons Winthrop Routebrief 2017
Use the following matrix to help decide whether to attempt to climb after referencing the forecast. As always, choose to turn back if the weather looks to be deteriorating. It is also well known that forecasts can be unreliable, but they are what we have to go on.
Start by going down the gray column on the left. First assess the wind component at either 1, 2, or 3. Then proceed to the precipitation component, add 1 or 3 to your running total. Add all the factors from the four rows. Consider the Emmons-Winthrop a moderately difficult route. You can see from the matrix below that precipitation and visibility can be show stoppers, even if the winds and temperatures are reasonable.
On the lower mountain, below 10,000’, these weather factors can often be mitigated by equipment and exceptional experience, however, there are far narrower margins of error. On the upper mountain (above 10,000’) the loss of a glove or getting snow inside one’s goggles and having them fog up can spiral into a life-threatening situation.
While in the mountains, you can predict approaching storms by reading atmospheric signs:
Cloud Formations
Lenticular clouds
Lens-shaped clouds look like UFO around peak
aka “Hogs-back” in UK and New Zealand
Lenticular clouds hovering over peaks indicate powerful system is moving in
Strengthening winds and incoming moisture within 6 to 24 hours
Cirrus Clouds
Cirrus clouds high in the atmosphere
Wispy and scattered
Can signal possible approach of fronts and low-pressure storm system
Seen alone - you are probably fine
Watch for presences or formation of other clouds
Cirrostratus Clouds
Thickening of clouds
Continuous, thin, veil-like layer
Often creates a halo effect around the sun or moon
Suggests front is getting closer
Altostratus/Nimbostratus Clouds
Lowering and Thickening blanket of clouds
Signals a drop in pressure and approaching precipitation
Can form over a day or two
Nimbostratus can block out the sun
Incoming moisture within 3 to 6 hours
Cumulous Clouds
Large, white and puffy clouds like cotton balls
Can indicate fair weather
Cumulonimbus
Cumulous Clouds can evolve into cumulonimbus clouds
Tall with many heads and bumps
Can bring hail, pouring rain, strong winds, thunder and lightning
Cloud Cover
Sharp and defined cloud base - Not precipitating
Blurry, indistinct base suggest precipitation
Wind Changes
Terrain driven wind
Winds are funneled and/or blocked by valleys
May experience wind after hitting a ridgeline
Narrow valleys can turn into wind tunnels
Unusually warm temperatures in clear weather or a sudden increase in wind speeds generally signal an incoming storm front
Barometric Pressure
The Barometric Pressure drops as you ascend
Drops in Barometric Pressure without ascension or greater than expected suggests approach of a low-pressure storm system
Temperature Drops
Temperature cools as you ascend
Roughly 3.5°F to 5.5°F for every 1,000 feet
Roughly 1°C (about 1.8°F) for every 100 meters
Lower Altitude Weather
Moderately bad weather at low altitudes suggests worse weather higher up
Hope for best, but prepare for the worst